Nus Board · WNBA

Valkyries at Aces Game 3: Can Vegas Stave Off Elimination?

By The Sports Nus Staff | October 9, 2026

Friday, 9:30 PM ET · Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas · Peacock/NBCSN · Valkyries lead series 2-0

The Las Vegas Aces are 40 minutes from the offseason. Down 2-0 to the Golden State Valkyries after dropping both games in San Francisco, including Wednesday's 83-81 heartbreaker on Veronica Burton's go-ahead three, the Aces return home for a must-win Game 3 on Friday night. No team in WNBA history has ever come back from 0-2 in a best-of-five series.

Golden State has done it with defense. The Valkyries allowed a league-low 75.5 points per game this season at the league's slowest pace, and they have held this series to roughly 148 points a night. Gabby Williams has been the engine with 20 points in Game 2 as the team's playoff scoring leader. Tiffany Hayes erupted for 21 off the bench on Wednesday, Kayla Thornton added 16, and the league's best bench just keeps coming in waves.

For Vegas, it starts with A'ja Wilson, and it has to be more than 24 points and 7 rebounds. The four-time MVP has been held to 11 rebounds and one block total in the series, and nobody outside Wilson, Chelsea Gray (19 points, 6 assists in Game 2) and Jackie Young has stepped up. The backcourt is held together with tape: Jewell Loyd's status is the swing factor for tonight, while Stephanie Talbot and Dana Evans combined for just 15 points in Game 2. Twelve Aces turnovers became 16 Valkyries points on Wednesday. That cannot happen again.

Expect Vegas's best punch early. The Aces have not led after any quarter yet this series, and at home facing elimination, the first-half effort should be their best of the series. But effort doesn't fix a thin rotation going against the deepest team in the league.

Betting angle

Aces -4.5 (-105). The board's play. Champions at home with the season on the line, and the number has barely moved off 4.5 despite the 0-2 hole, which tells you the market still respects the talent gap. Vegas needs Wilson to own the paint early and get the Valkyries' bigs in foul trouble. The risk is the rotation: if Loyd can't go full, the Aces are asking too much of too few.

Under 156.5 (-110). The board's other play. League-best defense, slowest pace, and a series averaging roughly 148 points a night. Game 1 managed just 131 total points. Elimination games tighten up, and Golden State wants this one in the mud.

Chelsea Gray over 11.5 points. On the board's radar. Gray has cleared this line in seven of her last eight games and went for 19 in Game 2 as Vegas's steadiest creator. With the Aces short-handed in the backcourt, the ball stays in her hands all night.

VIA NBC Sports, USA Today, Sportsbook Review, The Spread, Statsalt.