The ALCS is a best of three and Game 5 has the best pitching matchup of the series. Drew Rasmussen starts for Tampa Bay. Parker Messick starts for Cleveland. The winner tonight is one win from the World Series.

Betting angle

Rays moneyline (-140). The board play. Rasmussen went 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA this season and he has been better in October: a 1.29 ERA with 17 strikeouts and two walks in 14 postseason innings. Messick owns a 2.56 ERA of his own, but his postseason command has wobbled with eight walks in 11 and two thirds innings. Add a Tampa Bay lineup that finally woke up in Game 4, six runs driven in by the top four hitters, and the road favorite is the right side. Take the Rays on the moneyline.

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Key Facts

  • Line: Rays -140, Guardians +115 at BetMGM, total 6.5
  • Pitching: Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA, 1.29 postseason ERA) vs Parker Messick (12-9, 2.56 ERA)
  • Series: Tied 2-2. Game 6 Monday in St. Petersburg.
  • Watch: Sunday 5:08 PM ET on TBS, truTV and HBO Max