Nus Board · NFL
Ravens at Falcons: No Lamar, No Problem for Atlanta
Sunday, 8:20 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta · NBC and Peacock · NFL Week 5
Sunday night lost its headliner. Lamar Jackson is out with the ankle sprain suffered just before halftime against Tennessee, and Tyler Huntley starts for a Ravens team that also ruled out new center Cam Jurgens (concussion) and edge rusher Trey Hendrickson (finger). The Falcons, 2-2 and winners of two straight since Michael Penix Jr. returned, get a backup quarterback at home in primetime. This is the spot.
The numbers without Lamar are stark. Baltimore is 6-11 without Jackson since 2019, averaging 17.6 points per game against 28.4 with him. Huntley is the best-case backup: 2-0 filling in last season, 7-9 as a career starter, and five of those six Ravens wins without Lamar are his. But the explosives vanish. Jackson has nine completions of 25-plus yards this season, fifth in the NFL. Huntley had one total across his two starts last year. Against a Falcons defense that just needs to keep everything in front of it, that is a capped offense.
Atlanta is trending the right way. Two straight wins since Penix returned, the Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr. backfield has eight rushing touchdowns in four games, and first-year coach Kevin Stefanski has the offense humming. The Falcons' injury list is manageable: Za'Darius Smith (concussion) and Jake Matthews (groin) are questionable, but the core is intact. At home, in primetime, against a one-dimensional road offense missing its starting center, the Falcons should control this.
The trends back the favorite. Baltimore is 3-1, but the market has already adjusted: this line assumes the Huntley version of the Ravens, and it still might not be enough. The Ravens' path is Derrick Henry grinding clock while the defense holds Atlanta under 20. The Falcons' path is simpler: make Huntley beat them over the top, which he has never done. Lay the field goal.
Betting angle
Falcons -3 (-120). The board's play. Home team, rolling, against a backup quarterback without his starting center. Huntley is competent, not scary. Three points at home in this spot is fair value.
Under 43.5 (-110). Baltimore averages 17.6 points per game without Lamar, and Huntley-led games grind. If the Falcons lean on the run game too, the clock bleeds. The under is the correlated play.
Falcons ML (-175). The safer single if you do not trust the hook. Atlanta wins this game straight up more often than not.
Key Facts
- Quarterbacks: Tyler Huntley (BAL) vs Michael Penix Jr. (ATL); Lamar Jackson out (ankle)
- Line (DraftKings): Falcons -3 (-120), Ravens +3 (+100); total 43.5
- Records: Ravens 3-1, Falcons 2-2 (won two straight)
- Without Lamar: Ravens are 6-11 since 2019, scoring 17.6 ppg vs 28.4 with him
- Injuries: Ravens without Jackson (ankle), C Cam Jurgens (concussion), DE Trey Hendrickson (finger); Falcons list DE Za'Darius Smith (concussion) and OT Jake Matthews (groin) as questionable
- Watch: 8:20 PM ET on NBC and Peacock
VIA Reuters, NBC Sports, USA Today, TSN, DraftKings Sportsbook.