Nus Board · MLB

Guardians at Rays Game 2: Take the Dog With the Live Arm

By The Sports Nus Staff | October 13, 2026

Tuesday, 8:00 PM ET · Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg · TBS and HBO Max · ALCS Game 2, Guardians lead 1-0

The Guardians keep winning the games they are supposed to lose. Down 0-2 to the White Sox, they won three straight elimination games. Down 2-0 in the sixth inning of ALCS Game 1 against the best arm in the American League, they hung seven runs on 14 hits and stole home field. Now they hand the ball to the rookie with the best stuff on either roster, and DraftKings is paying plus money to take them.

Parker Messick was one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, not just one of the best rookies: 2.56 ERA, 193 strikeouts against 49 walks in 186.1 innings, 6.3 bWAR at 25 years old. October has been bumpier, with four earned runs across two abbreviated starts, but the swing-and-miss never left: 11 strikeouts in 6 and a third innings. He pitches on standard rest after throwing Thursday, and he gets a homecoming start 45 minutes from where he went to high school in Plant City, with family all over Tropicana Field.

Freddy Peralta has been a different pitcher since the trade deadline, and his 4.1 innings of one-run ball in the ALDS Game 2 win over the Yankees is why the Rays are favored. But the Guardians just saw Tampa's best bullpen arms and scored in bunches late: Chase DeLauter was a triple short of the cycle, Jose Ramirez had three hits, and Nathaniel Lowe's two-run eighth-inning single broke it open. Cleveland has won four straight postseason games, and this lineup is seeing beach balls right now.

The number says the Rays are the better team. The last week says the Guardians do not care. At plus money, you are betting the hotter team with the higher-upside arm, and Messick's regular-season form over 186 innings is the real him, not two short October outings. Take the dog.

Betting angle

Guardians ML (+110). The board's play. Messick's stuff is the best on either roster, Cleveland just dropped 7 on Rasmussen with 14 hits, and the hotter team is getting plus money.

Messick 6+ strikeouts (+140). Eleven punchouts in 6 and a third innings this October, 193 in the regular season. If he gives Cleveland five innings, six strikeouts is the par, not the ceiling.

DeLauter 2+ hits (+281). A triple short of the cycle in Game 1. The rookie is seeing it as well as anyone in the series right now.

VIA theScore, AP, Sportsnet, NBC Sports, DraftKings Sportsbook.