Nus Board · MLB

Dodgers at Brewers Game 1: Bet the Miz in Milwaukee

By The Sports Nus Staff | October 11, 2026

Sunday, 8:00 PM ET · American Family Field, Milwaukee · Fox · NLCS Game 1, series tied 0-0

The rematch nobody in Milwaukee wanted is here anyway. The Dodgers swept the Brewers in last year's NLCS and are chasing a third straight World Series. But this Brewers team won 103 games, the best record in baseball, and they open at home with the likely NL Cy Young winner on the mound.

The pitching matchup is the whole handicap. Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 252 strikeouts) has owned the Dodgers: a 1.59 ERA with 27 strikeouts and 3 walks across 17 innings against them, spanning two regular-season starts this year and a relief appearance in last year's NLCS. Tarik Skubal (12-7, 2.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 186 Ks) is a two-time Cy Young winner and the summer's prized trade acquisition, and he dealt in the NLDS opener with six innings of one-run ball and seven strikeouts against Atlanta. Ace versus ace, but one of them has the other team's number.

The trends lean Milwaukee. The Brewers are 55-26 at home, 8-2 in their last ten with a 2.45 ERA, and 32-10 when they hit two or more home runs. They took the season series 4-3. The Dodgers are 49-32 on the road and 7-3 in their last ten with a 1.88 ERA, so respect the champs, but their bullpen is held together with tape: Brusdar Graterol, Blake Treinen, Gavin Stone, Ben Casparius, Will Klein and Eric Lauer are all on the 60-day injured list. Milwaukee is down Brandon Woodruff and Quinn Priester, but their relief corps is the healthier unit, and in October that matters more than the names on the lineup card.

Here is the wrinkle: the total sits at 6. Two aces, two thin pens, one loud building. If both starters go six-plus strong, this is a 3-2 game. If either cracks early, the taxed bullpens turn it into a track meet. The Dodgers are even discussing adding a pitcher and dropping a position player with rosters due Sunday morning, and Miguel Rojas is day-to-day with back trouble. At -113, the home team with the better starter this season and the pitcher's personal dominance over this lineup is the play. Lay it.

Betting angle

Brewers ML (-113). The board's play. Misiorowski's 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 252 strikeouts at home, plus a 1.59 ERA career mark against these exact bats. Skubal is great, but the Dodgers' bullpen is a MASH unit and Milwaukee is 55-26 in this building. Short price for the better situation.

Under 6 (-108). Two aces, a 6-run total, and both staffs dealing (Dodgers 1.88 ERA, Brewers 2.45 ERA over the last ten). If the Miz and Skubal do their thing, this lands 3-2 or 2-1. The thin bullpens are the only fear.

Brewers -1.5 (+192). The alt-line juice on the parlay ticket. Milwaukee has handled LA at home this season, and if Misiorowski shoves for seven the way he has all year against these bats, 4-1 or 5-2 is the exact script. Plus money for the same story.

VIA theScore, Fox Sports, AP, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, DraftKings Sportsbook.