Nus Board · MLB
Brewers at Dodgers Game 4: Take the Plus Money and Watch History
Thursday, 8:00 PM ET · Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles · FS1 · Brewers lead 3-0 · Glasnow vs Brewers bullpen game
The Milwaukee Brewers are one win from their first World Series in 44 years. Wednesday's 6-2 Game 3 win was the statement: Jackson Chourio ambushed Blake Snell on the first pitch of the game, Jake Bauers turned an 11-pitch at-bat into a go-ahead two-run homer in the seventh, Garrett Mitchell went back-to-back right behind him, and rookie Robert Gasser held the Dodgers scoreless over five. The two-time defending champions have lost three straight at home in the NLCS and need four in a row to keep the three-peat alive.
The Dodgers cannot hit. Eight runs in three games. No home runs in the series. Two-for-26 with runners in scoring position. Shohei Ohtani is 4-for-22 this postseason with no homers, playing through biceps and knee issues, and Dave Roberts dropped him to sixth in the order for Game 3. Will Smith's two-run double on Wednesday was the first real thunder in days, and it lasted about half an inning. This is a $300 million lineup getting shut down by a rookie and a bullpen.
Tonight it is Tyler Glasnow for the season. The stuff is real: 0.95 WHIP, 98 strikeouts in 74 innings. But the command has been shaky, five walks in 4.2 innings in his NLDS start against Atlanta, and he is 0-3 with a 4.55 ERA in nine career appearances against Milwaukee. The Brewers run a bullpen game with the opener undisclosed, which sounds scary until you remember this is the best bullpen in baseball and the Dodgers just went 1-for-6 with runners in scoring position against it. Milwaukee is 9-1 in its last 10, hitting .277 with a 2.22 ERA in that span, and 7-3 against the Dodgers this season. William Contreras is 12-for-37 with three homers in his last 10.
Desperation is not a batting average. The Dodgers are the bigger brand and the home team, which is why this number is what it is, but the better baseball team is getting plus money. Milwaukee finished last in the NL in homers this season and just hit three off Snell. The moment is not too big for this group. Sweep.
Betting angle
Brewers ML (+130). The board's play. The Dodgers have 8 runs in three games, no homers in the series, and Ohtani is 4-for-22 this postseason. The Brewers are 9-1 in their last 10, 7-3 against LA this season, and one win from their first World Series in 44 years. Take the plus money and watch history.
Under 7.5 (-115). The board's other play. Glasnow's 0.95 WHIP against a bullpen game, and the Dodgers are hitting .201 over their last 10 with a 2-for-26 mark with runners in scoring position in this series. October duel or Milwaukee small-ball, either way the bats stay quiet.
Brewers +1.5 (-168). The insurance route. Pricey, but Milwaukee has lost by more than one run once in its last ten games. If the sweep gets stressful late, the run line keeps you alive.
Key Facts
- Series: Brewers lead 3-0 (G1: 2-1, G2: 7-4, G3: 6-2)
- Lines: Brewers +130 / Dodgers -157; Brewers +1.5 (-168); total 7.5
- Pitching: Brewers bullpen game (opener TBD) vs Tyler Glasnow (LAD)
- Glasnow: 5-2, 3.53 ERA, 0.95 WHIP; 0-3 with a 4.55 ERA career vs Milwaukee
- Dodgers bats: 8 runs in 3 games, no HRs in the series, Ohtani 4-for-22 this postseason
- Brewers form: 9-1 last 10, .277 BA, 2.22 ERA; 7-3 vs Dodgers this season
- Watch: 8:00 PM ET on FS1
VIA DraftKings Sportsbook, Reuters, theScore, northjersey.com, USA Today.